Shelbyville, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

360
FXUS63 KLMK 191342
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
942 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and storms remain possible today.

* Mainly dry weather Friday through the weekend, with building heat
  and oppressive humidity continuing well into next week. Highs in
  the 90s with heat indices near 100 Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Surface cold front is located just north of the Ohio River this
morning.  Ahead of the front, widespread cloudiness was observed
across the region.  Temperatures across the region were in the lower
70s.

Above mentioned surface front is forecast to drop southward during
the daytime hours.  This boundary will be a focus for renewed
convective development later this afternoon.  Current thinking is
that the front will become more active around 19/17Z or thereafter
with a band of storms likely developing east of the I-65 corridor.
These storms will push off to east/southeast this afternoon.

Model proximity soundings show marginal amounts of instability this
afternoon with very weak shear across the region.  Atmospheric
moisture content is a bit lower than Wednesday as well. Nonetheless,
brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, and cloud to ground lightning
will be possible with the storms.

Current forecast has this well handled and only minor adjustments to
the forecast grids were needed for this morning`s update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 237 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Our area is located underneath an upper level trough axis, with the
attendant cold front still to our west this morning. As the cold
front pushes east of the Wabash River later this morning, it will be
the lifting mechanism to fire off additional scattered showers and
storms across the area, mainly for the late morning and afternoon.
Ahead of the front, WAA regime will help temps warm into the 80s,
along with sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s. We`ll be able to realize
marginal destabilization this afternoon, resulting in scattered
showers and storms to pop up along the front. Wind shear will be
weak, which will help keep storms unorganized. PWATs will be less
than recent days, but some brief heavy rain rates could be possible
from any stronger storms.

The cold front will sweep through the area later in the day,
resulting in an end to precip. Clouds will clear out as well,
leading to mostly clear skycover by the evening hours. Temps will be
slightly cooler tonight due to the post-frontal airmass, with temps
expected to be in the mid 60s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 237 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Drier weather is to be expected for Friday and into the weekend as
anomalous upper ridging will build across the central US.
Reinforcing WAA pattern and expansive sfc high pressure will support
sfc temps rising well above normal for the weekend and into early
next week, with the potential for temps to hit the 90s.

Just how hot our ambient temps get remains a bit uncertain, given
how saturated our ground is from all the recent rain, and very green
vegetation. Despite this uncertainty, the bigger story may be the
combination of well above normal temperatures and the humid airmass,
and the prolonged stretch of several days with temps pushing into
the 90s. It`s possible that after several days, we may be able to
dry out by early next week and have better chances for temps hitting
the mid 90s.

Dewpoints are forecast to return to the 70s by the weekend,
and if our temperatures are able to hit 90, that would yield heat
indices in the mid to upper 90s and approaching 100. By the middle
of next week, temps could be pushing into the mid 90s, with heat
indices over 100 being more probable for a few days in a row.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 652 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

MVFR cigs currently impacting the TAF sites will improve to VFR
later this morning. Some isolated showers and a few storms are
possible today, but coverage will be much less. Due to this, not
confident enough to include mention in TAFs, as some terminals may
remain completely dry the rest of today. VFR conditions will remain,
with clouds clearing out by this evening. Light winds and clear
skies, combined with saturated ground, will support fog development
tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM....CJP
AVIATION.....CJP